Wednesday, 13 May 2009

Phase 2 - 2009 elections [Andhra Pradesh]

I could post my views on the very polling day for the phase 1. I could not do the same for phase 2 held on 23rd April for a variety of reasons - B.Tech project presentation, assignments, exams and finally laziness. And now with the exams completed here I am.

Elections were held for the remaining 154 of the total of 294 constituencies. The main difference between the two phases is the presence of Praja Rajyam. While the impact of
Chiranjeevi has been minimal in the phase 1 it is significant in most of the districts and severe in few other districts of phase 2. The average margin of victory in terms of % of votes in Phase 2 would be far less than that in Phase 1. The reason being that in Phase 1 there has been a two way fight between the INC and the Mahakootami [though PRP was technically present, it could not deliver a performance that would help call the fight a triangular one] but in Phase 2 its was a triangular contest almost everywhere.

First lets look at the three districts Krishna, East & West Godavari. All/most of the constituencies in these districts involve a triangular fight between INC, Mahakootami and PRP. With the advent of Chiranjeevi into Andhra Politics the role of caste in politics has increased. No one denies that even before Chiranjeevi caste had a role to play in elections and politics but now it has increased multi-fold and these are three districts severely affected. Any one who has been observing the proceedings in these districts can easily identify a caste polarity. With such factors working it is difficult to make predictions on numbers in these districts.

Next in the line is the district with the highest number of constituencies among all districts that went for polls - Guntur. In 2004 Dhulipalla Narendra Kumar of TDP saved the party from the disaster of a wash out by winning the Ponnur assembly segment. This time the TDP is expecting better results from this district. Vinukonda assembly constituency of this district took the credit for the highest election expenditure in Andhra Pradesh for 2009 elections [source:election watch]. All the three major parties have fielded potentially rich candidates and you can observe the result.

Now lets have a look at Prakasam and Nellore districts. INC would win majority number of seats in these districts. PRP might win Giddalur from Prkasam district. All eyes are on Nellore district where cinema glamour is expected to work.

Lets move on Rayalaseema region. Coming to Kadapa, it is the district that has been given atmost priority in various developmental activities in the last five years as the Chief Minister hails from this district. INC will 7-8 of the 10 assembly constituencies of this district. Chittor district is the one from which two potential Chief Ministerial candidates are contesting - TDP supremo Chandra Babu Naidu from Kuppam and Praja Rajyam chief Chiranjeevi from Tirupati. In 2004, Naidu has won with majority of 60,000 votes. This time the majority is expected to fall drastically due to two factors - The INC candidate Subramanyam Reddy has built up considerable strength as he is the Zilla Parishad chairman of the Chittor district - The presence of PRP would obviously take a share of the polled votes. Chiranjeevi is contesting from Tirupati. Talk is that Chiranjeevi might not win with a majority that justifies his stature. No prediction on numbers from this district. Kurnool district is next in line. The effect of Praja Rajyam is significant in
the assembly segments under the Nandyal parliamentary constituency. Allagadda is one assembly where PRP has chances of winning. The impact of Bhuma Nagi Reddy will be observed in all the seven assembly segments as he is contesting for the Nandyal parliamentary constituency. The election results will decide how far Balakrishna's tours have helped the TDP. INC might win majority number of seats in this districts. Finally lets look at Anatapur district. This district is strong hold of TDP and this time INC is expected to perform well. Crores of rupees has been pumped into two constituencies from the mines of Bellary[read Janardhan Reddy of Obulapuram Mining Company]. One of the ministers from this district J C Diwakar Reddy is riding against the tide. INC is expected to win majority number of seats from this district too.

Prominent personalities who ran the race for parliament and their prospects are:

Vundavalli Arun Kumar [Close associate of Y S Rajasekhara Reddy and Sonia Gandhi, the man who has been a nightmare for Ramoji Rao of Eenadu group for the last five years]
Murali Mohan [renowed movie artist, industrialist, MAA president]
U V Krishnam Raju [renowed movie artist, Rebel star of yester years]

all the above three contesting from Rajamundry------No weird idea, only known information is that the margin of victory would be very less.

Y S Jaganmohan Reddy [S/o Y S Rajasekhara Reddy]------Confirm win from Kadapa with majority of over 1,50,000 votes.

Pallam Raju [Minister of State]-------might loose from Kakinada.

Panabaka Lakshmi [Minister of State]------contesting from Bapatla, no idea about prospects.

Prominent personalities who ran the race for assembly and their prospects are:

Dr. Y S Rajasekhara Reddy [Chief Minister]-------Confirm win from Pulivendla with a majority of over 50,000 votes.

N Chandra Babu Naidu [TDP chief and the CM candidate of the Mahakootami]-------Confirm win from Kuppam with a majority lesser than that in 2004.

Padmabhushan Chiranjeevi
[PRP President] contesting from Tirupati and Palacole-------Confirm win from both, lesser margin at Tirupati.

No idea about approximate numbers but INC will win the highest number of seats among the three. Mahakootami will stand second followed PRP.

Thursday, 16 April 2009

Phase 1 - 2009 elections [Andhra Pradesh]

The elections for the legislative assembly and the parliament were held today. Phase 1 was for the areas of the Telangana and the Uttarandhra. The voting percentage was around 60. The lowest was at the Hyderabad district.... a mere 50%.

Lets look at the voting trend. Though there is an increase in the voting %, the % increase over the previous years is not encouraging. In the Hyderabad city Lok Satta ate a larger chunk from the traditional vote bank of the TDP. The vote transfer among the vote banks of Mahakootami did not take place at the expected levels. But at least 50% transfer would ensure a thumping victory for the Mahakootami. PRP made some surprising performances in some constituencies and played the spoiler part at few other constituencies.

Prominent personalities who ran the race for the Parliament today are: and their prospects
K Chandrasekhara Rao [TRS supremo]----Win with a lesser majority when compared to his stature [might loose in the worst case that too with a margin less than 5000 votes]

Vijayasanthi [film actress turned politician, Secretary General of the TRS]---Confirmed Win
Jaipal Reddy [Union Minister and senior Congress leader]----Riding against the tide

Renuka Chowdary [
Union Minister and senior Congress leader]-----Riding against the tide

Purandareswari [
Union Minister]----Confirmed Win

T Devendar Goud [One of the senior politicians in the Telagana region]----Will loose [Might win only if there had been huge cross voting in favour of him]

K Errannaidu [Senior TDP leader, TD parliamentary party leader]-----No prediction due to the presence of PRP

Bandaru Dattathreyya [Senior BJP leader and MoS in BJP govt]----Might win as there was good % of cross voting in favour of him.

Allu Aravind [Film producer, The person who has been calling the shots in the PRP]------No idea

Famous personalities who ran the race for the assembly today are: and their prospects

K T Rama Rao [S/o KCR, General Secretary of the TRS]---Might Loose

Jayasudha [Film actress turned politician]----Might Loose as she is contesting against a strong leader Talasani Srinivas Yadav of TDP

Suresh Reddy [Speaker of the house between 2004 and 2009]-----Confirmed Win----Margin 15000-20000

Predictions for Assembly:

INC --- 60-65 [could be even more]
Mahakootami --- 60-65
AIMIM --- 7 [could be even 8]
Lok Satta + PRP + others --- 11

No predictions for Parliament

Sunday, 1 June 2008

by polls in telangana

Today the results of the recently held by elections were declared. The resluts were a major setback for the Telangana Rashtra Samithi [TRS]. TDP and INC were the gainers, the latter being the largest gainer.

TRS supremo K.Chandra Sekhar Rao just managed to get through with a slender margin of 15,289 votes over the nearest rival T.Jeevan Reddy of INC. In the last by elections held in 2006 Rao won with a majority of over 2,20,000.

INC made a great come back by winning 6 assembly constituencies and one Loksabha constituency. INC had not been winning these constituencies since 1983.

TDP also got back to the winning ways by winning 5 assembly constituencies and one Loksabha constituency, happy news to N.Chandra Babu Naidu.